Japanese Imperialism and WW2

Japanese Imperialism and WW2 What role did Japanese imperialism play in origins of the Second World War and broader rivalries between the great powers? Over its short duration, the Empire of Japan was known to be a modern industrialised nation and a global power in the eyes of the west. Since the First World War, Japan’s military-dominated empire had long been preparing for its pursuit of imperialism. Between the period of 1931-1945, Japan aggressively moved towards expanding its territory through a series of conflicts against China and eventually the United States. Although Japan was faced against strong western competition, the vast imperial advances made by the Japanese had high impact upon the origins of the Second World War. This essay will discuss the origins and actions of imperialism in Japan and its importance in regards to the Second World War. To Japan, to be a modern power, much like that of the west, mean to be a colonial power. After the Meiji Restoration of the nineteen century that reformed Japan’s economic, political and social status, Japan finally had the industrial power to achieve some of its aims. Japan pursued a forceful foreign policy of expansion for the same reasons the Europeans did, including economic as well as nationalist reasons. In 1894, Japan was primarily trade oriented, despite the presence of important elements of industry. By 1930 it was industrial[1]. In the twentieth century, Japanese imperialism became more aggressive and confident after successes against foreign powers. Much like the Sino-Japanese war in 1894, which Japan won in 1895, Japan was strengthened by loses on China’s behalf such as Taiwan and the influence over Korea[2]. The victory was proof to the Japanese that modern weaponry worked and raised Japan’s reputation in the eyes of the west. This reputation was gre atly magnified to not only the west, but to the whole world, when Japan defeated the Russian Empire during the Russo-Japanese war from 1904-1905. The attack on the Russian Navy moored at Port Arthur before the formal announcement of war was so successful, the tactic was later used on Pearl Harbour[3]. In the eyes of many Asians living under Imperialism, it shattered the myth of European invincibility and proved that an Asian power could defeat a European one. After the First World War, Japan had been accepted by the Western Powers as a notable imperial power. By incorporating some of the European ideologies, Japan had been successful in its advances. Though, in the interwar period, most countries in Europe did not want another war. However, since Japan had not suffered as much as some European countries had, the reluctance to engage in warfare was not instilled in their imperialist actions. The empire, by the First World War, had expanded to Taiwan, Korea, the Pacific Island chains and Manchuria. Initially, Manchuria was a forethought to the expansion of the empire: it was not a strategic focus or had high importance of foreign policy[4]. However after 1931 Japan revaluated their strategic plan and focused their power on expanding their empire in the Northeast. Late in 1931, Japan experimented their power, invading the Chinese province of Manchuria and setting up a violently repressive puppet state. In its invasion of Manchuria, Japan had set into motion the first acts of the steps towards World War II that would start about a decade later. However, China was incapable to fight against the invasion due to national political and economic conflict, the allied countries were also practically helpless. Historian Robert Thompson states that America was not prepared to offer military backing to intervene, it however issued ‘The Stimson Doctrine’ which reinforced the allied interest in China. Thompson states that â€Å"by asserting the right to guarantee Chinas survival in the face of Japanese aggression, America acknowledged itself as a major player in the East Asian power game†[5]. It is obvious that many foundations were in place for the Second World War almost decade before the conflict had begun. With this modification the objectives of Japanese imperialism came more obviously into line with the stage of national economic growth, which is highly unusual among empires. The nations of north-east Asia, containing Japan, Korea, Manchukuo, north China, and Taiwan, were to constitute a region in which heavy industry was to be developed. The rest of the occupied area, brought under Japanese control, would serve as the industrial core to spread earnings and trade raw resources[6]. The gain of various resources by Japan, notably in Manchuria, made a trend to the Japanese that imperialism is highly beneficial to their economy. Their economic approach proved beneficial to Japan. War Historian William Beasley states that the foreign investment rate in the â€Å"United States increased, but was always very small. Japan’s grew enormously: from negligible amounts in 1902 to 1,136 million dollars in 1931, that is, to 35 per cent†[7]. Japan’s aggressive imperialism combin ed with its dramatic economic growth, gave allied Western countries reason for alarm before the start of the Second World War. The expansion of the Japanese empire came with their aggressive authority, which proved to be a large concern to the western powers. With the success in their imperial advances and in the period where Japan was seemingly isolated from the international conquest, nationalistic, along with militaristic, sentiments soared within Japan. The attitude was expressed in a speech by General Araki in 1933: â€Å"Needless to say, the Imperial Armys spirit lies in exalting the Imperial Way and spreading the National Virtue. Every single bullet must be charged with the Imperial Way and the end of every bayonet must have the National Virtue burnt into it.[8]† The nature of Japanese imperialism was very similar to western imperialism, notably British. Much like that of the British conquests a decade earlier, Japanese ideologies in imperialism were believed that not all Asians were equally qualified to take part in it[9]. Like that of the comparison between the treatment of aboriginal Austral ians to the treatment native New Zealanders, the Japanese behaved differently in north-east Asia to south-east Asia[10]. Inhabitants of north-east Asia were seen to the Japanese as civilized and were able to be reformed – like that of New Zealanders. The treatment of Japanese rule in China was part of an awareness of shared racial and cultural similarities. In south-east Asia, much like the treatment of aboriginal Australians, the Japanese saw themselves as saviours to the people. There were many issues, however. When co-operation was not imminent, obedience was the only accepted substitute. Differences in the actions of authority between the British and Japanese were no surprise: the Japanese authority reflected the difference in historical experience of the region and were no greater, after all, than those to be found within the British Commonwealth.[11] Japanese imperialism caused many rivalries with the ‘great powers’, notably the United States. Escalating conflicts between China and Japan influenced American relations, and contributed to pushing America towards a war with Japan with the attack on Pearl Harbour. As America was a long-time ally of China, the response to the invasion and the genocide was to deny Japan necessary resources, such as oil and metal. Without oil and metal, Japan’s production would be dramatically slowed. The attack on China was seen to be an insult to the American nation. The statement by academic George Blakeslee in American Foreign Affairs describes the difference between the American and Japanese imperialism and the Japanese insult. †The United States is a vast territory with a great population vis-à  -vis a dozen Caribbean republics, each with a relatively small area and population. Japan, on the other hand, is a country with a relatively small area and population vis-à  -vi s the vast territory and great population of China.[12]† However, the Japanese influence in south-east Asia was a political and economic necessity to prevent western influence from crippling Japan by limited their materials and sea-lanes[13]. Faced with severe deprivations as a result of the American constraint and unable to retreat from China, Japan’s leaders swiftly responded to the American’s restriction, which resulted in the attack upon Pearl Harbour. The imperialist actions on behalf of the Japanese created deep rivalry with America, a former ally, which led to the start of the Pacific War. The Second World War, however, was not sparked only by Japanese expansion into China, there were many other factors that led Japan, and the world, to war. A highly militaristic national ideology prevailed in Japan. The shaping of young men to be soldiers began early: in the 1930s, children toys became a form to familiarize children with weaponry, such as toy soldiers, tanks, rifles and guns as common day toys[14]. Japanese schools also operated like imitation military units, with strict discipline being common practice. Even the emperor was dressed in military attire. The leaders of Japan also often felt a need to prove that their military strength was significant and tough, and this was often a common contributing factor in the origins of wars. The formation of the axis alliance was also a prominent push for war. After being isolated from the ‘international community’ and with concern for the power of America and Britain, the alliance between Japan, Italy and Germany li nked the powers together for war. As both powers despised the European powers and had strong senses of fascism within their empires, although with different nationalities, the alliance with Germany and Italy was an effect measure to expanding Japan’s control. Japanese imperialism played a prominent role in the origin of the Second World War. With the aggressive expansion into China, Japan started the quest for war a decade before it expanded into a worldwide conflict. The imperialist actions led to rise of Japanese expansion and power. Japan’s pursuit for empire that eventually led to Pearl Harbor, would create rivalries with the ‘great powers’ and the origins of the Second World War. Word Count: 1856 (with footnotes) References Beasley, W.G.,Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1987. Blakeslee, George H. THE JAPANESE MONROE DOCTRINE. Foreign Affairs 11, no. 4 (July 1933): 671-681. Chang, Iris. The Rape Of Nanking. New York: BasicBooks, 1997 Crozier, Andrew J. The Causes Of The Second World War. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 1997 Laurie Barber and Ken Henshall, The Last War of Empires: Japan and the Pacific War, Auckland: David Batement Ltd, 1999 Jung-Bong, Choi. Mapping Japanese Imperialism onto Postcolonial Criticism. Social Identities 9, no. 3 (September 2003): 325-336 S Araki, â€Å"Imperial way†, (speech, January 23 1933); quoted in Ion, A Hunt, B, War And Diplomacy Across The Pacific 1919-1952, (Canada: Wilfrid Laurier University Press 1988), 140 Thomas, Charles S. S. World War II. InEncyclopedia of Violence, Peace, and Conflict, 2512-2524. Elsevier, 2010. Thompson, Robert Smith. Empires on the Pacific: World War II and the Struggle for the Mastery of Asia. New York: Basic Books, 2001 Young, Louise. Twentieth Century Japan : The Emergence of a World Power, Volume 8 : Japans Total Empire : Manchuria and the Culture of Wartime Imperialism. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998. [1] Beasley, W.G., Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945. (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1987), 251 [2] Young, Louise. Twentieth Century Japan : The Emergence of a World Power, Volume 8 : Japans Total Empire : Manchuria and the Culture of Wartime Imperialism. (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998.), 89 [3] Beasley, Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945, 69 [4] Laurie Barber and Ken Henshall, The Last War of Empires: Japan and the Pacific War, (Auckland: David Batement Ltd, 1999), 56 [5] Thompson, Robert Smith. Empires on the Pacific: World War II and the Struggle for the Mastery of Asia. (New York: Basic Books, 2001), 39 [6] Beasley, Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945, 255 [7] Beasley, Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945, 134 [8] S Araki, â€Å"Imperial way†, ( speech, January 23 1933); quoted in Ion, A Hunt, B, War And Diplomacy Across The Pacific 1919-1952, (Canada: Wilfrid Laurier University Press 1988), 140 [9] Beasley, Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945, 256 [10] Beasley, Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945, 256 [11] Beasley, Japanese Imperialism, 1894-1945, 257 [12] Blakeslee, George H, THE JAPANESE MONROE DOCTRINE. Foreign Affairs 11, no. 4 (July 1933): 671-681. [13] Crozier, Andrew J. The Causes Of The Second World War. (Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 1997), 198 [14] Chang, Iris. The Rape Of Nanking. (New York: BasicBooks, 1997), 29

Potential Hazards in Health and Social Care Essay

Introduction For this assignment I am going to produce an information booklet for new employees. Within this information booklet I will be explaining potential hazards and the harm that these hazards may arise in health and social care settings. My chosen service user group is the elderly infirm. The working environment in which I will be identifying the hazards is a care home for the elderly. When working with the elderly it is important that you take health and safety into consideration, this is because the elderly are starting to become frail and weak, their movements start to become slower and moving around alone can be a lot harder and may require the support of staff or other aids to get from A to B. This is why it is important that there are no hazards in place which could harm or cause injury to the clients. A hazard is something around you that could cause harm to you. There are different types of hazards, health hazards are incidents that could lead to someone getting ill. Safety hazards are incidents which can lead to someone getting injured and damage to a property or building. Security hazards are all about intruders whom put service users at harm for example, theft of the building, service users being taken without consent and accessing confidential information without any consent. I am going to be explaining hazards from the bellow areas and explaining how they can be harmful to the service users and staff; Environment Equipment Infections Substances Working conditions Working practice Security systems Environmental Environmental hazards are things within your environment which could cause harm to clients and staff. Environmental hazards include things such as the temperature of rooms, the pollution, objects and many others. An environmental hazard that could put clients at risk of harm is poor lighting within a room. This can affect those elderly clients who have poor vision; poor lighting makes it hard to see when moving around this could lead to someone tripping over and falling, it is also frustrating for the client and could cause confusion. This hazard could also put the staff at risk of harm to; for example if a room is too dim and they are guiding a client around the room and because of the poor lighting they are unaware of the table leg and they then trip over it, not only will they hurt themselves put they are also putting the client at risk to as the client may not be stable enough to stand on their own without any help. It is important that the lighting in all rooms within the care home are set the right way and this is to avoid these unexpected trips and falls, even though they may seem only minor but clients within the home have started to become frail and weak and if they end up falling and tripping over it could really have a big impact on them. â€Å"Slips, trips and falls can have a serious impact on the lives of employees and those being cared for† HSE (04/10/2014) If a client’s room is unclean and is full of clutter on the floor this can be hazardous to the client because if they get up and move around they could end up falling over the clutter and damaging themselves. It is also a major trip hazard for staff as they could be trying to get a client out of bed and because of the mess they end up tripping over it they then are at the risk of injury and could then be off from work because of they are injured. It is important that within the care home no objects are left on the floor, the floors should be clean, they shouldn’t be left wet and if they are wet then there should be a sign there to support the hazard and this is so that the clients are safe to walk around without the risk of them getting hurt. If the room temperature is set too high or too low this can be hazardous to the clients, as they have become older their immune systems have become weaker which means that they can catch illnesses quickly and it is hard for them to maintain their body temperature. If the temperature in a client’s room is set on low this could then lead to the client getting a cold and a cough. If the temperature in a client’s room is set too high and the client is unaware of it, it can then put the client at risk of becoming dehydrated and may sweat due to their body being over heated. In care homes it is important that each room is fitted with central heating this way the temperature of rooms can be manually set to meet the client’s needs. Equipment In a care home it is important that all equipment is used correctly and safely in order to ensure your clients and staff are not at risk of harm. Hazards from equipment include things such as; unsafe practise, poor maintenance, how tidy the place is and many more. In the living room of the care home there will be a lot of electrical equipment, it is important that there are no over loaded plug sockets, if there are any over loading plug sockets then it puts both the clients and the staff at risk of being electrocuted if they touch it. When plug sockets are all together and are live they can get heated up too much, if it is touched then the person could be left with burns and bruises. Overloading plug sockets can also cause a fire to the home and this incident could lead to death of clients and service users and this why it is important that safe practise is put into consideration. All electrical should be checked regularly to see if they are still in good working order and still are safe to use. It is important that within the care home there is a regular maintenance check and all this is recorded. This is because if the equipment is not safe to use but is still being used unware by the clients and it puts them at danger as the equipment could blow a fuse and injure them. For example, the kettle in the kitchen was last checked two months ago, within the two months a problem could have occurred without anyone knowing and when someone uses it, it then causes injury to  them. This is why it is important that all electrical’s are checked regularly to ensure safety. Within the care home where the staff are based there will be computers for staff to complete their work on. If the computer is positioned too high this can cause harm to the member of staff who is using the computer as they may be straining their neck whilst having to keep looking up at the computer screen. If the member of staff is constantly looking into the computer screen this then can strain their vision and may suffer from headaches. All used equipment should all be put away and nothing should be blocking any areas of the care home, it is mostly important that there is nothing blocking any of the safety exits as this will then put everyone in the building at risk when trying to evacuate if the fire alarm has alerted to do so. Especially for the elder clients as there mobility has become slower and it will take time for them to get out of the building and if for some reason they are blocked they could end up falling over things whilst trying as fast as they can to rush out of the building. A major trip hazard could be wires left on the floor, for example if a member of staff is using the hoover to clean the clients rooms and have gone from one room to the other whilst leaving the wire on the floor; anyone who is walking past could be at risk of falling and tripping over the wire. Whether it is a member of staff who is supporting a client around the hall or a client who has poor mobility and is trying to get around and does not see the wire then ends up falling over, this then could lead to them having sprained bones and some may suffer from broken bones. Infections- Whilst working in care settings it is important that you take infection control into consideration. Not only for the safety of your service users but for your own safety and health to. If infection control is not controlled it can lead to people getting ill and especially in a care home setting like so where elderly adults are they are at risk of quickly catching illness and infections. This is because as they have become older  their body has slowly weakened which means that their immune system isn’t as strong as before and fighting infections can become harder. â€Å"Infections acquired in care homes may be serious and, in some cases, life-threatening. These may worsen underlying medical conditions and adversely affect recovery† GOV.UK (2013) Within the care home the use of injections are used quiet frequently, it is important that after the injection has been used it is disposed straightaway in the right area and this is the member of staff’s responsibility to do so. If this is not done then the service users and staff are at risk of bacteria being spread and also because the injections carry body fluids such as blood, if it is passed on then the body fluids carry infections such as Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C and HIV. Needles are also sharp and can cause injury to the clients and staff users if they are around and not disposed after use. Personal hygiene should be taken into consideration in the care home, staff should be aware of their personal hygiene. They should be washing their hands the right way frequently after touching different things and when working with different client, or the use of hand gel is used a lot this is so germs and viruses are not spread between staff and clients. If they are spread then they are at the risk of catching illnesses and infections. This can affect the staff member as then they would have to take time of work for recovery and will affect the client as they will become ill and have to stay in bed and take more medication if needed which may affect their care needs. Staff should also be taking the clients personal hygiene needs into consideration and this is because as they have become older they rely more on the staff to do things for them. Staff should be asking the client whether they would like to take a bath or change clothes, this is so they are not spreading germs around the care home and putting other at risk. Substance- Within the care home many different substances are used which are hazardous to the clients and staff if they are used the wrong way. In the care home there are many types of substances found from cleaning products to  medication. A very hazardous cleaning substance used in the care home is bleach, if bleach is being misused or being used by accident it can cause really bad harm to the person. Bleach is full of chemicals and if it has been drunk can cause burns to the throat and the inside of your stomach is affected. Many elder clients may suffer from dementia and may not understand that it is bleach and may drink it because they think it is a drink. This is why it is important that staff store it in the right place with a lock so that it is only accessed when needed to stop this harmful substance from causing harm to any of the client’s staff. It is quiet easy within a care home to give the wrong medication out; this is because there are many different clients who all take different types of medication. But if medication is swapped around this can cause harm to the clients, each medication is used for its own reason they may have side effects that strongly affect a client which can make them become ill and other side effects that could harm the clients are things such as drowsiness and nausea. Also it can affect them as they may be unware of the dosage use and could end up taking an overdose. Clients whom suffer from dementia are at high risk of taking an over dose and this is because they forget about when they are supposed to take their medication and how much medication they are supposed to take. If the wrong medication is took for the wrong illness it can cause other illnesses, such as if someone by accident takes Arthritis tablets they can cause harm to the stomach and stomach ulcers can occur which can effect a person’s eating and health. Working Conditions- Working conditions are about the way you work, such as working hours, how many staff work and the relations between staff. All these conditions also have impacts on the clients within the care home. As care assistants working hours can be very long, many care assistants do day time shifts where they will be caring for the clients all day long then  pass on the information to the next night time shift workers when their shift is over. It is important that carers take their own health and wellbeing into consideration. They can become quiet tiered after long hours which do mean their ability to work will change, it will make them make unexpected mistakes and accidents may happen. This then puts the clients at danger when they are being cared for, they could end up being given the wrong medication or overdoses can be given. When working in care setting it is important that staff have a good relation with each other, this is because you are caring for other people and looking after venerable adults needs. Staff will need to be able to share information with other staff member revolving the clients, if the right information is not shared then the client’s needs are not going to be met the right way which then puts the client in danger of neglect. For example it is coming to the end of the day shift and notes have been made about a certain client which involves information such as when the client last had medication, when the client was last changed etc., it is then the responsibly of the staff to share and explain the information to the next member of staff because if this is not done so, without knowing the next member of staff could go and give the patient a dose of medication not knowing that they have just had a dose which then again puts the client at risk of a medication overdose and may suff er from harmful side effects. If there is not enough staff on shift the clients are not being able to get their needs met, this is because the shortage of staff means some clients may not be seen to when they need to because the staff members are busy dealing with other clients. Clients are then at risk of accidents as a client could be needing the toilet but because there is not any staff around to take them they end up wetting their selves and some clients may be at danger of falling if they feel they have to get up their self and they may have poor mobility which means they may end up falling when trying to get up and are at risk of breaking bones and being in pain for a long time. Working Practices- Working practises is about the way you do your job and how safely you do them  in order to not cause harm to your clients. Working practices include the training you have had in certain areas and how you use them skills gained to care for the clients within the home. Some examples of working practices are things such as; Manual Handling Training, working with challenging behaviour and preparing foods. It is important that all rules and regulations are followed when working in care settings, if you do not follow rules and regulations not only are you putting clients at risk of harm but you are also putting yourself at risk to. Every member of staff should be aware of the fire regulations and should know what to do if a fire occurs. If staff to do follow the set of rules that have been set for fire procedures they are putting their own life’s and clients life’s at risk, in a care home as the clients are older their mobility may be slow so may need help trying to get out of the building safely, staff should ensure the they are getting the clients are getting out safely and nothing is blocking the exits. If rules are not followed on time and the right way then they are at risk of being burnt and getting hurt. In order to care for clients well; certain training is needed, such as a Manual Handling. Before any staff member can lift a client they have to be trained in Manual Handling. This piece of training makes staff aware of the risks that could occur to both the staff and client if they do not lift clients the right way. If a member of staff goes to lift a heavy patient out of bed without having any training in this they can be putting their self and the client at risk, they could end up dropping the client which will hurt them and may end up getting injured and could also be putting their selves at risk because they could get bad back pains or fracture a bone which means they have to take time of work. So handling people should be taken into consideration at all times in order to keep people out of danger. All staff need to be trained in preparing food the right way, they need to be aware of the rules and regulations that should be followed in the kitchen. They should be aware of things such of cross contamination and this is about the germs being spread from different things, if cross contamination takes place it puts whoever is going to eat the food at risk of being food  poisoned. Within the kitchen area there should be different coloured chopping boards for different foods, these should be used correctly in order to prevent cross contamination from taking place. Staff should be taking personal hygiene into consideration, ladies should have their hair tied up and a hair net should be worn and this is because hair caries all sorts of bacteria and germs and if it goes in the food it can put people at risk. After touching different foods hands should be washed straightaway so infections are not spread. Security Systems In order to keep everyone safe in the care home security systems have to be put forward. If security systems are put forward it stops intruders from entering the building. Within care homes at the front is a locked door this stops unexpected visitors from entering the building and stops clients from leaving the building without any consent. Usually there is a signing in and out book so staff are aware if who is in the building and who isn’t. If intruders do enter the building it puts clients at risk of being abducted. Personal and important information is held within the care home which is all confidential, this shouldn’t be accessed when not needed and should only be accessed by the right people. If information is accessed by an intruder this is wrong and shouldn’t be happening because all clients have a right to confidentiality. If this sort of information is stored on the computer then there should be a high security password that only certain people know otherwise if the information is stored in files then the cabinet should have a lock on it to stop unauthorised people getting to it. Other security systems should be put into place within the care home such as windows which do not open fully, if a window does open fully then clients are at risk of falling especially if it is upstairs. They will then be at risk of suffering major or minor head injuries. Before staff are allowed to work in the care setting it is important they carry out a DBS check which checks to see if they have had any previous criminal offenses. If this check is not carried out and staff whom have been  previously convictions are working with clients are putting the clients at risk of abuse, or harm as they are vulnerable and may not understand. That is why it is important that appropriate staff are looking after the clients in order to keep all clients safe at all times whilst they are living in the care home. Conclusion- In order for the above hazards talked about in this booklet not to occur in the care home for the elderly infirm. I think that it is very important that before anything risk assessments should be carried out to look for all the potential hazards which could cause harm to the clients and staff in this environment. If the hazards are looked at beforehand control measures can be put into place which could stop the hazard from occurring. This way the clients will get to live within a safe environment without being at risk. Staff will be able to work and deliver their care in a safe environment to the clients. Also when the care home is under inspection they will be given a good reputation which mean staff will get to keep their jobs and clients can live securely in the care home. Bibliography HSE (2014). Slips and trips in Health and Social Care. (04/10/14) GOV.UK (2014). What are risks? The effects of heat on health. (04/10/14) GOV.UK (2013) Infection Prevention And Control In Care Homes. (04/10/14) NHS Professionals (2010) Standard Infection Control Precautions. (04/10/14) www.dh.gov.uk (04/10/14) Moonie, N. (2010). BTEC Level 3 national health and social care. London:Edexcel

My Experience in Contact Center Essay

Throughout my working experience, I have been a part of the contact centre family for 13 years to date. Today when I look back at how I spent those years and what kind of an individual I have turned out to be, I am glad that I made the right choice because this process has the capability to bring the best out of anyone, anywhere. Imagine getting the opportunity to provide a top draw service on behalf of an organization only by assisting the customer over the phone. Just with a few amendments and clicks, the customers issue is resolved there is self-satisfaction recognition gained from a CSE’s point of view. Besides that, being able to work together with a bunch of supportive colleagues even in unpleasant times, when there is a tense situation for instance and a customer’s call goes to the extent of escalation, I was able to control myself and work with my senior executive to get this issue resolved once and for all. From this experience that I have had, in the past and until today I do not feel abandoned, because I am willing to ask and my fellow colleagues are willing to share their ideas and opinions with me on how to confront the obstacle and make it a learning curve in my career. It is this special family like bond that I have been a part off for so many years now, and I couldn’t wish for any other challenge which constantly educates and provides me with a new direction of approach apart from being here, where I am happy, and best of all, I am home. The Malaysian contact center industry continues to grow despite competitive pressures from other markets like India and the Philippines, even though Contact Center Industry in Malaysia is relatively young but the growth has seen to be very positive. The main reason I believe is because Malaysia has multi language skills ethnics group and this is unique in the region, therefore we offer a good communication infrastructure that is a critical requirement for any good contact center service location. In this industry apart from taking calls, we can utilize as knowledge seeking & career enhancement environment. Providing more humane technical is support with diverse services & products. I feel proud that I am able to do my bit to help more Malaysians aware about broadband which is in line with the government’s National Broadband Initiative (NBI). And the main reason why I choose my career in Contact Center is because I enjoy challenging job that makes me think. I enjoy working with people and this is a job that will help me do that, at the same time my job in the contact center involves helping people meet their full potential.

Report On Financial Modeling And Business Forecasting Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 12 Words: 3529 Downloads: 5 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Argumentative essay Did you like this example? In this FMBF essay, three equity market price indices, including FTSE350, TOPIX and OMX HELSINKI (OMXH), will be studied based on time series. For the accuracy of conclusion, this essay will use last decade data because latest available information and large sample can contribute to the precision of the study. Because the tradeoff between significant ARCH effects with very high order from daily data and low order but less significant ARCH effects due to the monthly data, the frequency of weekly data is more appropriate. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Report On Financial Modeling And Business Forecasting Finance Essay" essay for you Create order In addition, closing data on Friday can avoid some evitable bias and result in higher reliability of the information. Therefore, the weekly data from Jan 2th 1998 to April 10th 2009 downloaded from DataStream will be used in this report. Instead of themselves, the natural logs of FTSE350, TOPIX and OMX HELSINKI (OMXH) equity market price indices will be used in this essay. This report will first test the unit root of three stock markets use Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test based on perrons testing procedure, and then it will find out the appropriate univariate model for estimating equity market returns of the three. After that, EG approach will used for testing cointegration between three indices. Where after, it will test whether there are the ARCH effects exist in the OMXH index, and re-estimate the appropriate univariate model mentioned above for OMXH index with a GARCH model. And, this report will use the last 15 observations to forecast the conditional mean and the conditio nal variance. Finally, it will critically compare the performance of the forecasts of different GARCH processes (eg, EGARCH, h_t GARCH) under same model. Unit root test Keeping the stationary of variables is an important condition of regression. When the data is not stationary, there is one or some unit roots exist in time series data. The presence of unit root will cause the problem of spurious regression. Usually, people can use one of two methods to test unit roots, either Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test approach (Said and Dickey, 1984), which developed from Dickey-Fuller (DF) approach (Dickey and Fuller, 1979), or Philip-Perron test created by Perron in 1998. The Perrons testing procedure increase restriction step by step, so that eliminate unnecessary parameters like trend and constant (these reductions of parameters will change the critical values of testing and reduce bias) and finally get precise conclusions (Harris and Sollis, 2003). Table 1.Perrons (1988) testing procedure using the DF test (unknown d.g.p.) C:DOCUME~1ADMINI~1LOCALS~1Temp7QWX`ZNVV)$8DZW6Y7_RD{P.jpgSource: Harris and Sollis, 2003 In this essay, it will use ADF test by using Perrons testing procedure to reduce bias. The only different between DF test and ADF test is the regressions of latter one have a new parameter Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¢ i Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¾yt-1. Figure1. Perrons Procedure of Unit Root Test C:[emailprotected]]J9K_61XW(E6)S3.jpg Source: Harris and Sollis, 2003 At first step, unit root will be tested based on . This essay will choose the model with appropriate number of lags based on lowest Akaikes Information Criterion (AIC) values for three indices. Then, compare t values of selected model with critical value at 95% significant level. From the results given by Pc Give, the null hypothesis of unit root cannot be rejected, the test process should continue. The appropriate number of lags is 7 for FTSE 350 and OMXH, 2 for TOPIX. Table 2. Step 1 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (1) t-value -1.336 -0.9436 -2.031 (table) 5% critical value -3.42 Accept Accept Accept At second step, this report will do OLS by using regression used in first step of procedure and regression without trend. Based on F statistic value and of two regressions, we can found that the later one is better. All three indices cannot reject null hypothesis and move on to next step. Table 3. Step 2 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (2) F-value 0.26500 0.64474 0.73237 (table) 5% critical value 6.25 Accept Accept Accept (2a) t-value 5% standard normal t critical value 1.96 At the third step, it test unit root with ADF test based on the model without trend. All three indices still cannot reject the null hypothesis. Table 4. Step 3 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (3) t-value -1.400 -1.113 -2.312 (table) 5% critical value -2.86 Accept Accept Accept At the fourth step, we can found that constant is not the necessary part of the model when compare models and. All three indices can accept the null hypothesis and the test process should be continued. Table 5. Step 4 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE 350 TOPIX OMXH (4) F-value 1.0622 0.75515 2.6918 (table) 5% critical value 4.59 Accept Accept Accept (4a) t-value 5% standard normal t critical value 1.96 Finally, it tests unit root in the model without constant and trend by using ADF test. From table 2, we can see that all three indices are non-stationary, and there are must be some unit roots in them. Table 6. Step 5 in Perrons testing procedure FTSE350 TOPIX OMXH (4a) t-value 5% standard normal t critical value 1.96 (5) t-value -0.4605 -0.6288 0.06988 (table) 5% critical value -1.94 Accept Accept Accept Univariate model The purpose of this part is to identify an appropriate univariate model to estimate equity market returns in time series. This report will use Box-Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1970) for time series model building. The procedure includes three stages: identification, model estimation and diagnostic checking. The first step is identification: the first order difference of the nature log of PI is market return. Because only stationary data can used in ARMA time series models, before ARMA model estimation, this essay will use ADF test to check the unit roots of market returns. The ACF and PACF diagrams may help to find appropriate ARMA model. The second step is model estimation: we should pick up the most appropriate model from a number of set possible ARMA models estimated by using Pc Give. In this stage, we should compare p-values and choose the model that most coefficients of parameters are significant from zero. The third step is diagnostic checking, it will test the efficiency of ARMA model selected in the second stage. It should test whether both additional lags are significant or not. According to Harris and Sollis (2003), only all additional parameters are insignificant, the original ARMA(p,q) model is efficient. Moreover, the residuals should be white noise for an adequate model. In this report, AIC will be used as one criteria to select appropriate model. 2.1 FTSE350 Identification According to the results of ADF test from Pc Give, market returns of FTSE350 are stationary. The actual series, ACF and PACF diagrams prove the results from ADF test that the FTSE 350 market return has no unit root at all. Table 7. ADF test on market return of FTSE350 index FTSE350 t-value -9.526 5% critical value -3.42 Reject Figure 2. Actual series and ACF, PACF of DLFTSE350 GiveWin Graphics 1.emf Estimation Compared with other models, ARMA (1, 1) seems to be appropriate. Based on p-values, most coefficients are significant. And residuals are white noise. DLFTSE350t=-0.0002577150.913851DLFTSE350t-1+0.854708 Diagnostic Overfitting Information from table indicated that ARMA (1, 1) is the correct one. The additional parameters AR2 and MA2 in ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2) are insignificant. Both ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2) should be rejected. Table 8. Overfitting test on ARMA (1,1) model Model Statistic t-value p-value result ARMA(2,1) AR_2 0.503 0.615 insignificant ARMA(1,2) MA_2 0.503 0.615 Insignificant Residual analysis Under Ljung-Box test statistic (Qk), Chi^2(21) = 28.353 [0.1304] in model ARMA (1, 1) provides evidence that residuals are white noise and independent. Figure 3. Actual series, ACF and PACF of DLFTSE350s residuals Giv eWin Graphicsftse350.emf AIC Value When compared the AIC values of ARMA (1, 1), ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2), we can found that ARMA (1, 1) is the model with lowest AIC value and should be selected. It is consistent with the results above. Table 9. AIC of ARMA (p, q) ARMA(1,1) ARMA(2,1) ARMA(1,2) AIC -4.52046242 -4.5174036 -4.51740249 2.2 TOPIX Identification The results from Pc Give shows that market return series of TOPIX is stationary. Figure 4 provides the actual series, ACF and PACF diagrams from Pc Give. All information is consistent with the idea of no unit-root in TOPIX market return. Table 10. ADF test on market return of TOPIX index TOPIX t-value -16.14 5% critical value -3.42 Reject Figure 4. Actual series and ACF and PACF of DLTOPIX GiveWin Graphics2.emf Estimation We can found that ARMA (1, 1) is the best one in ARMA models. Most of coefficients of parameters in ARMA (1, 1) are significant from zero based on P values. DLTOPIXt=-0.000570574-0.530279 DLTOPIXt-1+0.448276 Diagnostic Overfitting The p-values of both additional parameters AR_2 and MA_2 are greater than 0.05, it means that the coefficients of AR_2 and MA_2 are not significant at 95% significant level. So we should reject ARMA (2, 1) and ARMA (1, 2) in favor of ARMA (1, 1). Table 11. Overfitting test on ARMA (1,1) model Model Statistic t-value p-value result ARMA(2,1) AR_2 1.05 0.296 insignificant ARMA(1,2) MA_2 -0.00 1.000 insignificant Residual analysis From Portmanteau(23): Chi^2(21)= 21.585 [0.4238] in ARMA (1, 1) model, we can find that there is no serial correlation between residuals and they are white noise. None of bar chart i n ACF or PACF exceeds standard error bounds. Figure 5. Actual series, ACF, PACF of DLTOPIXs residuals GiveWin Graphicstopix.emf AIC value The result of AIC is same as the outcome mentined above. Based o AIC, we can found that ARMA (1, 1) is the best model with lowest AIC value. Table 12. AIC of ARMA (p, q) ARMA(1,1) ARMA(2,1) ARMA(1,2) AIC -4.24323212 -4.24138739 4.23974138 2.3OMXH (OMX HELSINKI) Identification Market return of OMXH is stationary from ADF test. And the figure 6 shows the actual series, ACF and PACF of DLOMXH by using Pc Give. It provide positive evidence that there is no unit root in DLOMXH (market return) Table 13. ADF test on market return of OMXH index OMXH t-value -7.920 5% critical value -3.42 Reject Figure 6. Actual series, ACF, PACF of DLOMXHs residuals GiveWin Graphics3.emf Estimation Based on results from Pc Give, we can found that the most appropriate model is ARMA (2, 2) for OMX HELSINKI (OMXH). Most coefficients of parameters are significant from zero at 95% significant level with evidence that most P values of them are less than 0.05. DLOMXHt=0.000804126+1.52249DLOMXHt-1-0.662672DLOMXHt-2-1.53479 +0.708503 Diagnostic Overfitting Looking at p-values, we can found that ARMA (3, 2) and ARMA (2, 3) should be rejected because the coefficients of additional parameters AR_3 and MA_3 are both insignificant from zero. Table 14. Overfitting test on ARMA (2,2) model Model Statistic t-value p-value result ARMA(3,2) AR_3 0.932 0.352 insignificant ARMA(2,3) MA_3 0.604 0.546 insignificant Residual analysis We can see that Portmanteau (23): Chi^2(19) = 28.866 [0.0681]. When translating numerical result to written words, it means residuals are not serial correlated and close to white noise. ACF and PACF are within two standard error bounds. Figure 7.Actual series, ACF, PACF of DLMOXHs residuals GiveWin Graphicsresidualomxh.emf AIC value Under the method that chooses the model with lowest AIC value, still ARMA (2, 2) should be the best model. Table 16. AIC of ARMA (p, q) ARMA(2,2) ARMA(3,2) ARMA(2,3) AIC -3.34659081 -3.33848893 -3.34351931 Cointegration 3.1Key steps in EG approach There are two common methodologies on cointegration test: Engle-Granger approach and Johansen approach. EG approach can but can only adopted in single equation with two variables, and Johansen approach is used in multivariate system. In this report, it will pursue EG approach. Firstly, it will outline the procedure of EG approach. And then, it will test the cointegration between each two indices. In theory, C:DOCUME~1ADMINI~1LOCALS~1TempKXB{][email  protected]/* */)W.jpgis the only static model that necessary to be estimated to exam the long-run relationship between Yt and Xt. Before do the cointegration test, the order of integration of each other index should be test. If all data are belong to I(0), there will no cointegtaion between them; if variables are belong to I(1), it estimate the model mentioned above by using OLS regression. In the second step, it will test unit roots in the residuals with ADF test. When there is no cointegration between two variables, residual is belongs to I(1). If the residuals is belongs to I(0), it means that cointegration relationship exist in that single equation. What is important here is the critical values used by ADF are calculated by MacKinnon (1991). Critical value can be calculated by following the model C:DOCUME~1ADMINI~1LOCALS~1Temp641N%ER][email  protected]/* */[DB.jpg. It can get the appropriate critical value for test including residuals from OLS equation if the number of regressors (constant and trend are not included) from 1 to 6. If the cointegration existed in long-run relationship between two variables, we should estimate the simple dynamic model of short-run adjustments. In this report, it will use equilibrium correlation model (ECM) of dynamic model. In this step, the speed of adjustment for regression will be obtained. (Harris and Sollis, 2003) Test for integration of each two indices Three indices are all integrated of order 1, or we can call I (1), because the natural logs of them are not stationary and the first order difference of the natural logs of them are stationary. 3.2FTSE350 and TOPIX Firstly, it regress LFTSE350 on LTOPIX and a constant by using OLS regression. Then, save the cointegration regression residual in database as residual1. After that, test residual1 with ADF. We can see that the number of regressors is 1 (excluding constant). We choose model based on the idea of the lowest AIC value. From the table of ADF test, residual 1 is stationary and thus variables are cointegrated. Also, figure 8 from Pc Give shows persistent but stationary residuals. In short, these two indices are cointegrated. Constant and no trend, n=1 C(p)=-2.8621-2.738/563-8.36/563^2= = -2.86699 Table 16. ADF test on residual 1 Residual 1 t-value -3.181 5% critical value -2.86699 Reject Figure 8. Residuals from Cointegration regression between FTSE350 and TOPIX GiveWin GraphicsEG1.emf ECM The coefficient of residual provides information on the speed of adjustment. The number 0.0448954, which is significant from zero, means the adjustment for the regression. (See Appendix) 3.3TOPIX and OMXH Regress LTOPIX on LOMXH and a constant by using OLS. Then, save the cointegration regression residual in database as residual2. After that, use ADF to test residual. The number of regressors is 1 (excluding constant). We choose model based on the idea of the lowest AIC value and the t-value is-2.622. We found out that -2.86699 is less -2.622, the residual2 is non-stationary and two indices are not cointegrated. In addition, from graph, the residual2 provides clear information about stationary or non-stationary of data. In conclusion, there is no cointegration between TOPIX and OMXH. Constant and no trend, n=1 C(p)=-2.8621-2.738/563-8.36/563^2= = -2.86699 Table 17. ADF test on residual 2 Residual 2 t-value -2.622 5% critical value -2.86699 Accept Figure 9. Residuals from Cointegration regression between TOPIX and OMXH GiveWin GraphicsEG2.emf 3.4FTSE350 and OMXH Regress LFTSE on LOMXH and a constant by using OLS. Then, save the cointegration regression residual in database as residual3. After that, use ADF to test residual3. The number of regressors is 1 (excluding constant). From table of ADF test on residual 3, two indices are not cointegraed because the residual3 is non-stationary. From figure 10, it does not provide strong evidence for stationary. So, these two indices are not cointegrated. Constant and no trend, n=1 C(p)=-2.8621-2.738/563-8.36/563^2= = -2.86699 Table 18. ADF test on residual 3 Residual 3 t-value -2.278 5% critical value -2.86699 Accept Figure 10. Residuals from Cointegration regression between FTSE350 and OMXH GiveWin GraphicsEG3.emf ARCH and GARCH 4.1 ARCH effect and ARCH model This report will only discuss the OMXH stock market index in this section. Due to the limitation of Pc Give, it cannot deal with ARMA model of DLOMXH directly, but change it to AR model at first. Compared with other AR models, the AR (7) model is the best. DLOMXHt=0.000839271-0.00444882DLOMXHt-1+0.0369747DLOMXHt-2+ 0.0307856DLOMXHt-3+0.0258150DLOMXHt-4+0.141961DLOMXHt-5 +0.0693818 DLOMXHt-6 -0.0841123 DLOMXHt-7 Under Ljung-Box test statistic (Qk), Portmanteau (23): Chi^2(16)=15.328 [0.5007] in AR (7) indicates that residuals are independent and white noise. The ACF and PACF support the above result. None of bar chart is passing beyond the significant lines. Figure 11. ACF, PACF of AR (7) model on DLOMXH GiveWin Graphicsomxh ar.emf Before the formal test on ARCH effects in residuals of DLOMXH, the ACF and PACF graphs of squared residuals of DLOMXH provide evidences that ARCH effects exist in DLOMXH residuals. Figure 12. Squared residuals actual series, ACF and PACF GiveWin Graphicsomxh42.emf After the informal test of ARCH effects in residuals of DLOMXH based on ACF and PACF, it will test ARCH effects more academic. This report use Pc Give to test ARCH effect in lower order and higher order, and the results point out that there are ARCH effects in lower and higher order. ARCH 1-1 test: F(1,566) = 12.071 [0.0006]** ARCH 1-6 test: F(6,556) = 4.8959 [0.0001]** After ARCH effect test, the report tries to estimate an appropriate ARCH model. In this stage, it selects Volatility Models and chooses 7 as the lags of length. From ARCH1 to ARCH8, we can found that the Chi^2 becomes to be better and better, while the p-value of parameters are becomes to be worse and worse. None of the ARCH model can fit the data well. 4.2GARCH Model According to Brooks (2008), GARCH models can overcome some problems faced in the process of using ARCH models. GARCH (p, q) model with p and q values can fit the data better than ARCH (m) model with a high m value. It still uses Volatility Model with 7 lags as ARCH model used. At first, it gets the numerical information of GARCH (1, 1) model, GARCH (2, 1) model and GARCH (1, 2) from Volatility package of Pc Give. When checking the F distribution values and Chi^2 values of three models, it can found that all are acceptable (values are significant from zero). Unfortunately, there are some data missing related to parameters in all three models. So, it cannot compare p values of parameters to choose best model. Instead, it will use information includes results of ARCH tests, Portmanteau statistic of squared scaled residuals, log-likelihood and AIC values to find a better one. Table19.Compareable information of GARCH(p, q) GARCH(1,1) GARCH(2,1) GARCH(1,2) AIC -3.599 89604 -3.60415615 -3.59636247 log-likelihood 1029.77058 1031.97619 1029.77058 Portmanteau(23): Chi^2(21)=16.696 [0.7293] Chi^2(20)=14.329 [0.8135] Chi^2(20)= 16.696 [0.6726] ARCH 1-2 test: F(2,551)=0.10648 [0.8990] F(3,548)=0.075153 [0.9734] F(3,548) = 0.15031 [0.9295] Compared with other GARCH models, we can find that GARCH (2, 1) model is better; even neither model can fit data very well. GARCH (2, 1) is the model with lowest AIC value. The highest log-likelihood value in this model indicates that it can fit data best in the three. All of three Chi^2 are significant from zero, which means there are no relationships between residuals and they are white noise. The numbers in brackets are p values of Chi^2. The higher the value the greater evidence of white noise of squared scaled residuals. The ARCH effect test F distribution values are related to whether there are ARCH effects in squared scaled residuals. Similar with the Portmanteau sta tistic, a higher number in bracket means greater support of none ARCH effects in squared scaled residuals. 4.3Forecast with GARCH Models In this section, the last 15 observations will used to forecast the conditional mean and variances. SD (Standard Derivation Error) RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will adopted to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting based on different GARCH models. A model with better data fitting is always has lower SD (Error). A low MSE indicates a better fit of GARCH model on time series data. MAPE is another indicator of accuracy on data fitting of GARCH model. When the value decreases, the model can fit the data better. In addition, the model with lower MAPE can predict the trend of data. The power to measure the data fitting of models is increasing from SD (Error), RMSE to MAPE. EGARCH (2, 1), GJR GARCH (2, 1) and H_TGARCH (2, 1) models were established to evaluate the efficiency of GARCH (2, 1). All can pass the processes of ARCH effect tests and white noise tests. Because GARCH model used to measure volatility of data, the ability of forecasting on co nditional mean is limited, and the key capability is volatility measurement. All models are doing badly in conditional mean forecasting: the predict graph can provide very limited information about conditional means that all are close to zero in the forecasting period and. When compared with forecasting capability, we can see that GJR GARCH (2, 1) is the model with lowest MAPE and second small RMSE. It indicates that GJR GARCH (2, 1) has strongest power for forecast. Table 20. RMSE and MAPE SD (Error) RMSE MAPE GARCH(2,1) 0.055276 0.055772 91.742 EGARCH(2,1) 0.055429 0.055814 91.422 GJR GARCH(2,1) 0.055220 0.055645 90.988 H_TGARACH(2,1) 0.055236 0.055396 94.793 Figure 13. GARCH(2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance THGARCH(2,1).emf Figure 14. EGARCH(2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance EGARCH(2,1).emf Figure 15. GJR GARCH(2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance th2,1.emf Fig ure 16. h_tGARCH (2, 1) forecast on conditional mean and variance GARCH(2,1)FORECAST.emf Reference Brooks, C., 2008. Introductory Econometrics for Finance. 2th edition. Cambridge. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74:427-431. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Jouranl of Econometrica 49:1057-1072. Harris, R. and Sollis, R., 2003. Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting, John Wiley Sons, New York. MacKinnon, J., 1991. Critical values for co-integration tests, in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger. Long-Run Economic Relationships: 267-276, Oxford University Press, Oxford ,UK. Perron, P., 1988. Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series ¼Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚ ¡Further evidence from a new approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Contro 12:297-332. Said, S.E. and Dickey D.A., 1984. Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknow n order. Biometrika 71: 599-607.